I have been telling you for some time now that interest rates will go higher. That time has finally arrived. The Federal Reserve has all but guaranteed us that they intend to begin raising the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds) at their March Meeting. They also intend to raise this “benchmark” rate every quarter for the remainder of the year. Many economists are expecting a 25-basis point (1/4 of 1%) increase at each of the Meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve. With that said, we also need to keep an eye on the Treasury Yield Curve. At the beginning of March, the 1-Year Treasury Bill is yielding 1.02%, the 5-Year is yielding 1.76%, and the 10-Year Treasury is yielding 1.89%. As you can, see the spread between the 5-Year and the 10-Year is only .13% basis points. The message that the Market is telling us is that they do not believe that yields will keep spiking higher before a recession could come in and cause rates to fall again. You will want to keep an eye on the 10-Year Rate to relative to the shorter-term bond yields to better predict how high rates may go, and for how long.
In addition to the ongoing inflation numbers, which generally suggest that rate hikes are coming to curb inflation, we also need to keep an eye on the problems in Ukraine. Whenever we have geo-political threads, the Markets become more volatile. In many cases, that means that investors look to bonds as a safe haven, thus causing bond yields to fall since demand for the bonds go up.
I think that we all have great concern for the people in Ukraine. It is devastating what the people there are experiencing. Let’s all keep them in mind in the days and weeks ahead.
As always, I want to thank you for your loyalty and invite you to contact us if you have any questions or concerns.
Mike
My Fair Share
The “My Fair Share” program invites Employees of Commerce Bank of Wyoming to nominate organizations in the community to be recipients of monetary donations contributed by the Bank Employees. The program allows the Employees to decide what percentage of their contribution will directly benefit the organizations. The local recipient of the 2021 My Fair Share Program was Hospice of Sweetwater County. Pledges awarded to this organization totaled over $1,700.
eStatements: Safer Than Paper Statements
Cyber thieves are everywhere on the internet these days, trying to steal your identity. Or that’s what it seems like. With cyber theft on everyone’s mind, it’s not hard to see why you might hesitate before you sign up for eStatements. Aren’t paper statements safer? Actually, no.
Your identity is in the mail
A review of Secret Service cases that included components of identity theft and identity fraud suggests your greatest exposure for identity theft is at your mailbox. The report showed the top two methods of identity theft were re-routing of mail and mail theft.
When you weigh it all out, you’re better off with electronically delivered statements than a paper copy that could end up in the wrong hands. Paper statements can be stolen, they have to be stored securely and when you want to get rid of them, you have to shred or destroy them. That’s a lot of paper in the landfill.
Enrolling is easy. Contact your personal banker today to learn more!
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